हिम्मत करने वालों की हार नहीं होती...

लहरों से डर कर नौका पार नही होती
हिम्मत करने वालों की हार नहीं होती॥

नन्ही चींटी जब दाना लेकर चलती है,
चढ़ती दीवरों पर सौ बार फिसलती है।
मन का विश्वास रगों में साहस बनता है,
चढ़ कर गिरना, गिर कर चढ़ना ना अखरता है।
आखिर उसकी मेहनत बेकार नहीं होती,
कोशिश करने वालों की हार नहीं होती॥

डुबकियाँ सिँधु में गोता-खोर लगता है,
जा-जा कर खाली हाथ लौट आता है।
मिलते ना सहज ही मोती पानी में,
बहता दूना उत्साह इसी हैरानी में।
मुठ्ठी उसकी खाली हर बार नहीं होती,
हिम्मत करने वालों की हार नहीं होती॥

असफलता एक चुनौती है, स्वीकार करो,
क्या कमी रह गयी, देखो और सुधार करो।
जब तक ना सफल हो, नींद चैन की त्यागो तुम,
संघर्षों का मैदान छोड़ मत भागो तुम।
कुछ किये बिना ही जय-जयकार नहीं होती,
हिम्मत करने वालों की हार नहीं होती॥

जो बीत गई सो बात गई !

जो बीत गई सो बात गई !


जीवन में एक सितारा था,
माना, वह बेहद प्यारा था,
वह डूब गया तो डूब गया;
अंबर के आनन को देखो,
कितने इसके तारे टूटे,
कितने इसके प्यारे छूटे,
जो छूट गए फिर कहाँ मिले;
पर बोलो टूटे तारों पर
कब अंबर शोक मनाता है !
जो बीत गई सो बात गई !

जीवन में वह था एक कुसुम,
थे उस पर नित्य निछावर तुम,
वह सूख गया तो सूख गया;
मधुवन की छाती को देखो,
सूखीं कितनी इसकी किलयाँ,
मुरझाईं कितनी वल्लिरयाँ
जो मुरझाईं फिर कहाँ खिलीं;
पर बोलो सूखे फूलों पर
कब मधुवन शोर मचाता है;
जो बीत गई सो बात गई !

जीवन में मधु का प्याला था,
तुमने तन-मन दे डाला था,
वह टूट गया तो टूट गया;
मदिरालय का आँगन देखो,
कितने प्याले हिल जाते हैं,
गिर मिट्टी में मिल जाते हैं,
जो गिरते हैं कब उठते हैं;
पर बोलो टटे प्यालों पर
कब मदिरालय पछताता है !
जो बीत गई सो बात गई !

मृदु मिट्टी के हैं बने हए,
मधुघट फूटा ही करते हैं,
लघु जीवन लेकर आए हैं,
प्याले टूटा ही करते हैं,
फिर भी मिदरालय के अंदर
मधु के घट हैं, मधुप्याले हैं,
जो मादकता के मारे हैं,
वे मधु लूटा ही करते हैं;
वह कच्चा पीने वाला है
जिसकी ममता घट-प्यालों पर,
जो सच्चे मधु से जला हआ
कब रोता है, चिल्लाता है !
जो बीत गई सो बात गई !

Fiscal Deficit for 2010-11

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee today presented a budget with a fiscal deficit of 5.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

He pegged the total expenditure at Rs11.09 lakh crore while the total tax and non-tax revenue was estimated at Rs6.82 lakh crore for the year 2010-11.

The deficit is much lower than the budgeted estimate for the current fiscal (6.8%), which, however, has been revised to 6.9%.

To meet the shortfall, the government has estimated borrowing of Rs3.81 lakh crore for fiscal 2010-11, lower than the current fiscal's Rs4.01 lakh crore.

"I am happy to report that against a fiscal deficit of 7.8% in 2008-09, inclusive of oil and fertiliser bonds, the comparable fiscal deficit is 6.9% as per the revised estimates for 2009-10," Mukherjee said.

The rolling targets for the fiscal deficit are pegged at 4.8% and 4.1% for 2011-12 and 2012-13, respectively, he said.

Understanding Balance of Payment terms

BOP consist of two accounts
1.Current Account
2.Capital Account


The Current accounts which measures the net balances in
1. Trade in goods
2. Trade in Services
3. Investments income from overseas assets
4. Transfers (private and government) between counties
The Capital account measures the net flows of capital between the nations
1. Direct Capital Investment including FDI (Inflow of Capital spending by foreign firms, Take overs of domestic business by foreign owned business)
2. Financial Investment Flows ( Inflow of money from overseas into Government bonds and Securities)
3. Banking flows

In principle a country running a current account deficit can ‘balance’ things up by running a surplus on the capital account - the UK is a good example, because the economy has been a favoured location for FDI and there is a strong appetite among foreign investors for UK government bonds
A country running a current account surplus can run capital account deficits i.e. invest heavily overseas or just accumulate foreign exxchange reserves e.g. China, Norway, Oil exporting nations .... some of whom have created their own sovereign wealth funds
In principle the BoP must balance .... it does so because of adjustments that countries make to their foreign exchange reserves using IMF agreed accounting measures and also because of the balancing item which reflects errors and ommissions!

How Indian Rupee appreciation worsen current account deficit?

How Indian Rupee appreciation worsen current account deficit?



When the INR increases in value, it is then more expensive for other countries to invest in India ( ie. money flowing into India for exports or foreign direct investment). Analysts believe that we'll see the Rupee strengthen about 12.4% this year and 6% in 2011.

At the same time, India is having an increased demand for oil and is required to import. With higher prices, India will pay more for that oil (ie. money flowing out of the country). So as you can see, the deficit is created by spending more money for oil (and other exports based on demand), and making less money in exports for goods and services.

Does this mean that India is going to be doing worse in the future? Not necessarily, however the country will be battling inflation and agricultural output also. (We know this is a big issue because the RBI raised the target inflation for March 2010 from 5% to 6.5% back in October). Many of those still investing in emerging markets like India will be watching for decisions in government taxation and what areas of spending will be curbed to maintain mid-term growth.

If a country’s current account is in deficit, it would imply that its imports of goods and services are higher than its income from exports and remittances from non-residents .

The current account deficit also implies that the country is pushing for its investments to be higher than that supported by its savings. While India’s savings rate has increased to 33-36 % of GDP from 21-23 % in the early 1990s, investment has also increased commensurately with current account largely remaining deficit.

Since the balance of payments (BoP) crisis in 1991, policymakers, however, have managed to keep the current account deficit within a range of 0.5-2 % of GDP considering the macro stability aspect. Running a small current account deficit for higher investments and GDP growth is the appropriate policy approach for a developing economy. During the initial phase of the take-off , the current account balance for other Asian economies was also in deficit or saw a very small surplus. For instance, China moved into high growth of 9%- plus on a sustained basis for the first time in early 1980s from an average of 6.2% in 1970s. In China, current account balance remained in small deficit or negligible surplus until mid-1990s.

The globalisation of capital markets and the steady rise in capital inflows make it easy to fund the current account deficit through stable non-debt creating inflows. Over the past 10 years, while India’s current account deficit has averaged 0.5% of GDP, net capital inflows have averaged about 3.4% of GDP. The current account plus net FDI has been in a manageable deficit range of 0-1 .5% of GDP over the past 10 years.

Indeed, the total net capital inflows (FDI plus portfolio equity and external debt) have persistently been higher than the current account deficit. The net balance of payments surplus (current account balance plus net capital inflows ) has cumulatively resulted in a rise in forex reserves to over $280 billion as the central bank has intervened to prevent excessive appreciation in the exchange rate.

Policymakers have also ensured that capital inflows are not highly geared towards building external debt. The RBI and ministry of finance’s policies discourage short-term debt inflows. Equity-oriented capital inflows (net FDI plus portfolio equity inflows) have accounted for 55% of total capital inflows over the past 10 years.

Post the 1991 BoP crisis, policymakers in the country have ensured that the current account deficit does not rise above 2% of GDP, a kind of self-imposed prudential limit. However, the dynamics of current account have changed over the past two years. In 2008-09 , for the first time since the 1991 BoP crisis, India’s current account deficit widened to more than 2% of GDP (2.4%). In the first half of 2008-09 , a large spike in crude oil prices in mid-2008 to $145/bbl pushed oil imports up suddenly. Oil balance (imports less exports) deteriorated to -5 .4% of GDP in 2008-09 from -4 .3% of GDP in 2007-08 .